BEEF lovers will continue to pay high prices at the supermarket or butcher checkout over the next four years, based on forecasts by Wangaratta global meat trader and analyst, Simon Quilty.
Mr Quilty forecasts that any discounts in retail prices for beef products will be short lived and will return to current price levels, if not higher into 2025, 26 and 27.
"Right now and in the last year figures show we've had large production in Australia, mainly driven by the dry conditions in 2023," Mr Quilty from Global AgriTrends said.
"Volumes of exports have been up at record levels for sheep and lamb, but also for beef, but what's important to note is that large exports don't equal good demand.
"In actual fact we sold into all these markets last year at a discount due to oversupply and economies that were struggling - it was challenging."
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Mr Quilty said 2024 is a transition year on many levels and globally they expect beef suppliers to tighten and in particular from Australia, the US and South America.
"In 2025 we then start to move into a large rebuild program globally and when rebuilds occur, supply tightens because females are retained and prices move higher," he reported.
In the export scene, he said to realise record prices over 2025, 26, and 27, markets need to improve and economies around the world need to get better.
"The assumption I have in my forecast is that we move on from the issues that we've got, including Japan going into recession and the UK in recession, but we're expecting by 2025 that these markets will have come out of the worst and improve.
"To get those record prices, we need stronger economies around the world, therefore demand to improve, but also supply to tighten."
For some time people have been aware of the large per kilo variance in price people pay for beef products at the supermarket checkout, compared to what the beasts sell for at the yards.
Mr Quilty said this variance is due to the lack of labour at meat processing facilities.
He explained that without labour it's difficult to process and therefore a bottleneck occurs and what's coming out the other end is restricted and prices are at higher levels.
But the labour shortage is expected to change, with Mr Quilty reporting that five meatworks are coming online on the Eastern Seaboard, so the problem with beef will alleviate itself.
"In the sheep meat sector there is no new capacity coming online, so the problems are likely to remain in this sector," he said.
"We're expecting improved prices on sheep meat (lamb and mutton) in 2025-26 and possibly 2027, but I fear that the ability to turn the tap on so easily in this sector, that could be short lived, and by 2028 prices could fall again."
Domestic demand for beef and lamb has been up, as has the volume sold domestically, and lamb sales performing considerably well.
