Wangaratta housing boom at risk as Victorian new home sales plunge

Wangaratta's residential construction sector could face a slowdown despite emerging from one of its strongest years for dwelling approvals in recent memory. Housing Industry Association figures show Victorian new-home sales fell 23.3 per cent in the September quarter 2026, contributing to a national decline of 17.5 per cent as higher interest rates and economic uncertainty weighed on buyers. The fall contrasts with recent local activity. Residential building approval data shows 182 dwellings were approved in the Rural City of Wangaratta in 2025-26, up 50 per cent from 121 the previous year. It was the municipality's second-highest annual total of the past six years, behind 232 approvals in 2020-21. Other yearly totals were 186 in 2021-22, 179 in 2022-23 and 156 in 2023-24. Approvals reflect homes moving through the planning and construction pipeline, but the HIA warns weaker sales are likely to affect future building activity. Mario Antonello, from Afonso Building Solutions, said Wangaratta's position was also shaped by the limited supply of titled, build-ready land, making direct comparisons with statewide sales trends difficult. "I think, if anything, the number of sales has probably dropped off, but on the flip side we don't have a lot of titled land either," Mr Antonello said. He said new subdivision stages could create opportunities for more home sales, although demand would remain tied to interest rates and borrowing capacity. "Interest rates don't determine whether they'll borrow or not; it probably determines how much they can get," Mr Antonello said. Wangaratta blocks were generally generous by metropolitan standards, he said, with lots of about 500 to 600 square metres among the smallest available. Buyers able to secure a larger loan would often choose a mid-sized four-bedroom house instead of a smaller three-bedroom design. HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said the recovery in new-home sales after interest-rate cuts in 2025 had reversed. "The deterioration in new home sales suggests that the improvement in home building activity will be short-lived unless market conditions improve," he said. Mr Reardon said higher interest rates, increased taxes and broader uncertainty were driving the decline, while display-village visits, inquiries and buyer conversions remained weak. The slowdown comes as housing supply remains a major local issue. The Rural City of Wangaratta Affordable Housing Strategy says house prices have risen about 50 per cent since COVID and supply has struggled to keep pace with demand. Council has identified increasing affordable housing as a priority and is planning for long-term residential growth. Strong 2025-26 approvals should sustain building in the short term, but a prolonged sales decline could weaken the flow of future projects. Mr Reardon said Australia began construction of 204,500 homes in 2025-26, well below the 240,000 required annually under the Housing Accord. Wangaratta's industry will now watch whether Victoria's sales slump translates into fewer local approvals and builds.

Wangaratta housing boom at risk as Victorian new home sales plunge

Wangaratta Chronicle, Wednesday, 28 October, 2026

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