I need "a miracle"

LABOR candidate Zuvele Leschen concedes she needs "a small miracle" to beat Nationals' incumbent Tim McCurdy for the seat of Ovens Valley. More than half of the electorate's 40,000 or so voters have already cast their vote, with thousands more expected at pre–poll stations today in Wangaratta and Yarrawonga, ahead of the official election day tomorrow. Mr McCurdy remains an unbackable favourite to retain the seat for a fourth consecutive term, with Labor needing a 25 per cent swing on two party preferred figures from the last election. In 2018 Independent candidate Tammy Atkins won more than 19 per cent of the primary vote, and the absence of an Independent candidate in this election throws open the question of whether smaller or major parties will be the beneficiaries. Mr McCurdy remains confident, noting he had seen a lot of "anti–Daniel Andrews" sentiment at pre–poll stations among voters over the past two weeks. Ms Leschen said she's not ruling out a swing towards Labor locally, but admits her campaign began "far too late" due to "a mix–up at head office" after another candidate fell through. "They (Labor head office) thought they had a candidate, then they didn't, and then they didn't tell anyone," she said. "I think part of the reason Labor was holding back was because they would like to see an Independent in the field to shake the vote up again." Seat is vulnerable, says Labor candidate Despite her whirlwind campaign, Labor candidate Zuvele Leschen believes the seat is vulnerable, pointing to a change of demographics in the electorate including more young families moving to the area. "It would be fair to say that it would be a small miracle if I won the seat, but it wouldn't be a total miracle as I think the seat should be Labor because it has a lot of low–income casual workers who are traditional Labor types," she said. "They got used to voting for Kenny Jasper (former Murray Valley Nationals MP for 34 years), and they haven't got out of the habit. "Long–term, with serious campaigning, I think Ovens Valley could be a vulnerable seat. "You can't say that Labor has done a serious campaign here for a while, and yet we constantly have had swings to us against Tim. "He is vulnerable and if we're a bit more organised in the future I can't see why we can't give him a really good scare." Depending on what happens tomorrow, Ms Leschen's optimism could grow, reducing a long–term goal to potentially a Labor Ovens Valley win at the 2026 election. "If I can get the two–party preferred margin down to 10 per cent against Tim, it's a doable margin to close in one hit and certainly doable in two elections." If all the stars align for Labor in Ovens Valley Ms Leschen has faith that a candidate could be voted in the short–term but this depends on a lot of variables including how Labor travels at a state level and changes of leadership. "I've always thought it's a seat that should go Labor fairly easily with the right campaign, the right candidate and the wind's blowing in the right direction." Traditionally the Ovens Valley district has been a retiring population although Ms Leschen views this as a demographic heading towards change. She said young people who can't afford to buy a house in Melbourne but can get a job in this area and afford to buy a home here could be the demographic change of the future. "I'm cautious about this because every campaign I'm told we'll win it off the youth vote but basically we don't have a youth vote in the electorate," she said. "The demographics are changing, maybe slowly but they are changing." As to who will form government, polls this week report a neck and neck contest but several commentators can't see how the Coalition will win enough seats to form government after only winning 27 seats (21 Liberal, 6 The Nationals) at the 2018 state election, compared to Labor's 55.

I need "a miracle"

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